Values & Market Data

Caterpillar Ceases On-Highway Truck Production: Impact on Used Prices

The volume of each model on the used market has influenced the pricing as the number of these trucks available for sale has risen in 2016.
Values & Market Data

Senior Industry Analyst

Despite lower average ages, the CT660S prices much lower than the CT660L with even more average mileage given the ages. The volume of each model on the used market has influenced the pricing as the number of these trucks available for sale has risen in 2016.
All three Caterpillar models showed the most price variation during the summer months with the CT660L varying even more throughout the past 17 months.

Key Takeaways for Decision Makers

BUYER/SELLER: When determining which Caterpillar to buy, the CT660S models for sale are younger with more availability to choose from.

With the recent announcement of Caterpillar no longer producing on-highway commercial trucks, we are taking a deep dive into the trends on the resale market for these trucks since January of 2015. The average monthly volume for each of the models has increased in 2016, especially for the CT660S, which has shown the most stable month over month pricing changes so far this year. The CT660L has consistently shown lower average monthly utilization than the CT660S. It appears as though the larger volume and higher average mileage has helped the CT660S stabilize pricing month over month as opposed to the not so stable CT660L.

The inconsistent pricing for the CT660L in March 2015 was influenced by the increase in average age of the truck from 2 years to 3 years along with a 76.9% drop in overall volume. This month over month change was almost insignificant in comparison to the large jump between June and September. The summer months tend to bring higher values and more sales on the used truck market, which was evident with the CT660L. Volume between June and July alone more than doubled and as sellers were taking advantage of the market, prices increased 39.9% in June and another 23.3% in July. These jumps in values are not unique to Caterpillar as they occur during this time of year for most commercial trucks. The momentum continued into August before prices began dropping for the fall months. With the 5.1% increase in March and 29.6% increase in May, used prices on the CT660L are almost back to their highest 2015 value, which occurred in September.

The CT660S had less monthly variation in pricing than the CT660L. In the beginning of 2015, the CT660S averaged higher prices than the CT660L, but did not keep up with the month over month increases thus falling well below the average price of the CT660L. A large influencer of this was that there have been more than double the number of CT660S trucks than CT660Ls during 2016 so far. The average mileage for these models remains more consistent with only small month over month changes in comparison to the much larger differences for the CT660L models. Despite the average age being a year younger on the CT660S, they have consistently had higher utilization averages than the CT660L models.

As Caterpillar prices have already been on the rise along with volume, it would be hard to say this momentum can continue. However, with the summer months approaching and the previous trends in both volume and pricing, even more increases may be in the future for these trucks.

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